In a Cointelegraph interview, Arthur Hayes explains why global markets may not be pricing in a longer war in the Middle East, and what that may mean for energy prices, liquidity and Bitcoin. As geopolitical tensions escalate and global markets face a new wave of uncertainty, one asset has been behaving in an unexpected way: Bitcoin. While the Middle East slides deeper into conflict and energy markets react to potential supply disruptions, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has held up relatively well compared to many traditional assets. For some observers, that resilience raises an important question: Could Bitcoin be signaling something about the macro environment that markets haven’t fully priced in? Read more
Turmoil in the Middle East has sent investors scrambling for safety once more, reigniting a debate over which assets truly offer protection in times of stress. The choice is complicated, as traditional refuges behave unpredictably. Gold has swung sharply, and the dollar — which has been out of favour in the past year — has bounced back. Here’s a look at how some of the favourites stack up: Greenback passes a test The dollar has arguably performed the best among safe havens this week. The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against six others, is up 1.5 per cent. The dollar has even gained against the Swiss franc and yen, which both typically outperform at times of market stress. That’s particularly notable as the dollar weakened when stocks fell following last April’s tariff turmoil, raising questions about its safe haven status. It’s short-term dollar cash that’s in demand, not other dollar assets, flow data shows. Of course, the US is a net energy exporter, so a crisis like this that sends benchmark ...
Bitcoin short-term holder losses were minimal over the weekend, and the Monday rally to $70,000 suggests the heaviest selling is done. Will Bitcoin finally break the monthly resistance? Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $70,000 on Monday as the shadow of war looms over the entire Middle East. Data from CryptoQuant shows short-term holder loss transfers to exchanges falling to a two-week low over the past 24 hours, and the slowing exchange flows stand in contrast to the rate of selling seen in early February. The short-term holder (STH) profit/loss (P&L) to exchanges metric tracks how much Bitcoin recent buyers send to exchanges at a profit or loss. These participants tend to amplify volatility during stress events. On March 1, the realized losses fell to 3,700 BTC even as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated in the Middle East. Bitcoin dipped to $63,000 during that window, but exchange inflows from this cohort did not expand in response. Read more