Bernstein | Crypto

Bernstein says Bitcoin’s selloff already reflects quantum risk and that developers still have time to agree on a post-quantum upgrade path. Bernstein said Monday that Bitcoin’s selloff has already priced in much of the market’s fear around quantum computing, arguing that the threat is real but still manageable rather than an immediate existential risk. Bitcoin’s (BTC) near 50% drawdown from its $126,198 all-time high in October 2025 is proof that the market has “priced in” several risks tied to a quantum breakthrough, partly thanks to technological progress on zero-knowledge privacy and quantum-proof cryptography that “counterbalance” the AI and quantum acceleration, Bernstein said in a Monday note shared with Cointelegraph. The note lands two weeks after Google researchers said future quantum computers could break the elliptic-curve cryptography used across many blockchains with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits in some architectures, reviving debate over how quickly Bitcoin needs a post-quantum upgrade pat...

Bitcoin faces a future quantum threat, but Bernstein analysts say risks are concentrated in older wallets and exposed keys, and unlikely to cause existential disruption. Advances in quantum computing could eventually pose a threat to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, but the risk remains manageable and unlikely to cause existential disruption, according to a new research report by Bernstein. In the report, the Bernstein team — Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Sanskar Chindalia and Harsh Misra — described quantum computing as a “manageable upgrade cycle” rather than an “existential risk.” Recent breakthroughs, including research from Google showing a significant reduction in the resources required to break modern encryption, have accelerated the timeline for potential threats. However, building quantum computers powerful enough to compromise Bitcoin (BTC) remains years away due to major technical hurdles and high costs. Read more

Bernstein says Figure may be undervalued as loan volumes surge and its tokenized credit platform expands, despite recent stock declines and market volatility. Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-based lending platform that went public last year, may be undervalued at current levels as loan originations accelerate and its tokenized credit marketplace scales, according to Bernstein analysts. In a report published Monday, Bernstein assigned Figure an “Outperform” rating and a $67 price target — nearly double the stock’s recent trading level of around $32. The bullish call follows a surge in lending activity. Figure originated $1.2 billion in loans in March, up 33% from the previous month and marking the first time monthly volumes exceeded $1 billion.  Read more

Bernstein says crypto-linked equities like Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure now trade about 60% below last year’s peaks, but analysts see growth in revenue and earnings through 2027. Broker Bernstein told clients on Monday that the steep selloff in crypto-linked equities had created a more attractive entry point into tokenization and onchain-finance themes, while maintaining bullish ratings on Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure. In a note to clients, Bernstein maintained Outperform ratings on all three companies while cutting price targets, arguing the reset had improved the risk-reward profile for investors seeking exposure to onchain finance. Shares of the trio have fallen between 57% and 62% from their 2025 peaks, although Bernstein continues to forecast double-digit growth in revenue and earnings through 2027. The firm lowered its price target on Coinbase (COIN) to $330 from $440, on Robinhood (HOOD) to $130 from $160 and on Figure (FIGR) to $67 from $72, citing near-term pressure and the prospect of weak first...

Analysts say new US stablecoin rules may hit yield distribution, not issuers, as USDC growth in payments and trading continues to accelerate. Circle’s shares sell-off on Tuesday may have been overdone as investors failed to see that the stablecoin issuer’s core business model remains unaffected by the proposed CLARITY Act, analysts at Bernstein said on Wednesday. In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Sanskar Chindalia and Harsh Misra said markets are conflating “who earns yield” with “who distributes yield.” “Circle earns. Coinbase distributes,” the analysts wrote, noting that the draft legislation primarily targets the distribution of yield to users — not the underlying reserve income earned by issuers like Circle. Read more

Stablecoins could benefit from the rise of AI-driven payments over time, even as early adoption remains limited and contested, according to a new report. Stablecoins could benefit from the rise of AI-driven payments over time, even as early adoption remains limited and contested, according to a new report from Bernstein. In a Monday note shared with Cointelegraph, the broker said stablecoins could help unlock machine-to-machine payments by making microtransactions viable and enabling programmable, conditional payments between software agents without a human in the loop. But Bernstein said traction so far has been limited. The note said Stripe and Tempo’s machine payments protocol recorded about $5,000 in stablecoin volume in its first week, while Coinbase’s x402 protocol handled no more than $25 million over the last 30 days. Read more

ETF inflows and continued corporate buying are gradually reshaping Bitcoin’s ownership structure, Bernstein analysts say. Bitcoin’s recent rebound reflects a strengthening base of long-term holders as ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying reshape the asset’s ownership structure, Bernstein said in a Monday research note shared with Cointelegraph. Bernstein said Bitcoin outperformed gold and major equity indexes over the past week despite heightened conflict in the Middle East, with Bitcoin (BTC) up around 7% and Ether (ETH) up about 9% over the period. Analysts attributed the shift partly to continued US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and the steady accumulation of corporate buyers such as Strategy, which they say are gradually strengthening Bitcoin’s long-term holder base, contributing to a more stable market structure. Read more

Shares of the stablecoin issuer have seemingly decoupled from the broader crypto market, gaining 49% this year and doubling since early February. Circle Internet Financial is among Wall Street’s best-performing stocks so far in 2026, and analysts at Bernstein believe the rally could continue as stablecoin adoption accelerates. In a recent note to clients, Bernstein reiterated its “Outperform” rating on CRCL stock and set a $190 price target, which typically reflects analysts’ expectations for a stock over the next 12 months. Despite a volatile end to 2025, Circle shares appear to have decoupled from the broader cryptocurrency market, which has been under pressure since October following a major leveraged liquidation event. Read more

Stablecoins are decoupling from crypto market cycles as they are increasingly used for digital payments, Bernstein analysts said, which bodes well for USDC issuer Circle.

The research analysts pointed to tight liquidity and macro pressure as drivers of the decline, while noting that spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen relatively modest outflows. Bernstein analysts on Monday maintained their $150,000 target for Bitcoin (BTC) despite the recent sell-off that they said was being driven by lacking investor confidence rather than structural stress. Calling the pullback the “weakest bear case” in the asset’s history, the analysts’ note to investors said no major failures have emerged across Bitcoin’s market plumbing, and pointed to relatively modest 7% net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs even as BTC price dropped by about 50%. “The current Bitcoin price action is a mere crisis of confidence. Nothing broke, no skeletons will show up,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said. Read more

After a choppy end to 2025, Wall Street broker Bernstein said crypto markets have likely bottomed and it sees a broad-based tokenization boom reshaping finance.

Bernstein reiterated its outperform rating on Robinhood and lifted its price target on the stock to $160 from $105.

The crypto exchange is becoming one of USDC's most active advocates across payments and financial services, Bernstein said.