Polymarket | Crypto

Traders on the Polymarket prediction market platform place the odds of the Strait returning to normal traffic by May 31, 2026, at 73%. Polymarket prediction market odds of the Strait of Hormuz “returning to normal” by the end of May spiked to 73% on Friday, following news that Iranian officials have temporarily opened up the Strait of Hormuz as part of a ceasefire deal. The odds climbed to a high of 82% on Friday, after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Since that time, the odds have fallen back down to 73%. He said in an X post: However, traders on the platform placed the odds of the Strait returning to normal activity by the end of April at just 40%. Read more

Sterling Crispin's 'Nothing Ever Happens' bot automatically buys "No" on every non-sports Polymarket it finds. It's not that crazy.

Polymarket links briefly appeared under mainstream outlets in Google News results for event-driven queries but were later removed. Polymarket betting markets reportedly appeared inside Google News results alongside established news publishers before disappearing. A Google spokesperson told The Verge that the platform’s appearance in News was an error. “This site briefly appeared in Google News in error, and it is no longer surfacing in News,” spokesperson Ned Adriance reportedly said. Before removal, Polymarket links were shown directly beneath mainstream outlets when users searched event-driven queries. In one example cited by website Futurism, a search for “will ships transit the strait” related to the Strait of Hormuz returned a Polymarket market predicting outcomes on vessel passage alongside reporting from Reuters and The Guardian. Read more

A trio of accounts on Polymarket made more than $600,000 on U.S./Iran ceasefire markets, drawing attention as potential insiders.

Polymarket’s plan to roll out its own collateral token sounds, at first glance, like the kind of move that should eat into Circle's USDC. A platform swaps out USDC.e, introduces Polymarket USD, and the obvious retail question follows almost immediately: Does that mean less demand for USDC? The short answer is no. Polymarket USD is […] The post What will happen to USDC now Polymarket is launching its own stablecoin? appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Polymarket has become one of decentralized finance’s highest fee-generating protocols, pulling in about $7.1 million in fees in the first week of the second quarter. Polymarket has become one of decentralized finance’s most profitable protocols after a pricing overhaul, generating about $7.1 million in fees in the first week of the second quarter, according to new data. That pace implies an annualized run rate of roughly $365 million if sustained, placing the onchain prediction platform among the industry’s top fee generators and giving it nearly all of the sector’s revenue, at 96.8% of onchain prediction market fees. The gains follow a March 30 pricing change that pushed daily fees to around $1 million, a level that has largely held as trading activity remains elevated, data from DeFiLlama shows, and make Polymarket the eighth-largest DeFi protocol by fees, along with stablecoin issuers Circle (USDC) and Tether (USDT) and decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid. Read more

Polymarket is upgrading its exchange infrastructure in the coming weeks, introducing new contracts and a USDC-backed token while phasing out a bridged stablecoin. Prediction platform Polymarket is overhauling its exchange infrastructure in the coming weeks, introducing a new collateral token and upgraded trading system that give the platform greater control over settlement and risk as it moves toward closer alignment with US regulatory expectations. In an announcement on Monday, Polymarket said it will deploy new exchange contracts — dubbed version 2 — designed to simplify how orders are structured and matched. The upgrade is intended to make trading more efficient and to make it easier for developers to connect apps and trading bots to the platform. The new system will also support EIP-1271, an Ethereum standard that allows smart contract-based wallets, such as multisigs and automated trading systems, to sign transactions, expanding compatibility beyond traditional wallets. Read more

Polymarket is overhauling its technical foundations and launching a stablecoin as it aims to improve the user experience and order book.

The President of the United States continues to give contradictory signals of escalating the war and winding it down within a few weeks. The odds of the United States invading Iran this year surged to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform on Sunday, following comments made by US President Donald Trump on social media. The odds of an invasion before 2027 are still down from the high of 68% on March 29, which occurred due to a US troop buildup and comments from the Trump administration that the US was considering capturing Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil shipping station. The Polymarket trading volume for a potential US invasion of Iran was about $3.74 million at the time of publication. Read more

Polymarket cited “integrity standards” for removing the market but did not specify which rule was broken, drawing scrutiny from users who questioned how its policies are applied. Polymarket removed a market tied to the fate of a missing US service member after mounting backlash, saying the listing violated its “integrity standards.” The controversy erupted after a prediction market appeared asking whether US authorities would confirm the rescue of a pilot reportedly shot down over Iran, with most users (over 60%) betting that they wouldn’t be rescued until Saturday. US Representative Seth Moulton condemned the market, calling it “disgusting” and expressing concerns over people speculating on the fate of a potentially injured service member. “They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member. And people are betting on whether or not they'll be saved,” Moulton wrote. Read more

The prediction market is introducing price-based contracts tied to stocks and commodities, using Pyth data feeds as the "resolution source" to automatically settle outcomes. Polymarket has added markets tied to equities, commodities and exchange-traded funds, using price data from blockchain oracle provider Pyth Network as the resolution source to determine outcomes for daily contracts. The new markets include daily up-or-down and closing price contracts for major equity indexes, commodities such as gold and oil, and a range of US-listed stocks, with outcomes settled automatically based on Pyth’s real-time price feeds. The contracts reset at the end of each trading session. According to the announcement, the offering includes more than a dozen US-listed stocks, including Tesla, Nvidia and Apple, alongside commodities and equity indices. Read more

Polymarket’s March 30 fee overhaul lifted daily fees and revenue, but how long the spike lasts is unclear as regulatory pressure builds. Prediction market Polymarket’s recent fee expansion has started to affect its numbers, with daily fees and revenue climbing sharply in the days following a March 30 price overhaul.  According to DefiLlama data, daily fees rose from about $363,000 on Monday to over $1 million on both Wednesday and Thursday, while revenue (the portion retained after incentives) reached as high as $995,000 on Wednesday before easing to about $899,000 on Thursday.  The jump follows the rollout of a broader fee model on Monday, when the platform expanded taker fees beyond crypto and sports to categories including finance, politics, economics, culture, weather and tech, while keeping geopolitical and world events fee-free.  Read more

Polymarket pundits are giving just a 15% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim $120,000 in 2026, while veteran trader Peter Brandt said he doesn't expect a new high until Q2 2027. It could be more than a year before Bitcoin regains its all-time high of $126,100, recorded in October last year, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt. “I do not see a new price high in 2026,” Brandt told Cointelegraph. “Not until maybe the second quarter of 2027,” he said, though he also acknowledged that “this is all guesswork.” Pundits on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket are similarly pessimistic, giving just a 15% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim $120,000 in 2026. Read more

ICE completed a new $600 million investment in Polymarket, advancing its $2 billion funding deal as prediction markets face growing scrutiny. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), said Friday it completed a new $600 million direct cash investment in Polymarket, deepening its bet on prediction markets as a new area of growth for exchange operators. The company also said it expects to purchase up to $40 million of Polymarket securities from existing holders, adding to its previously announced investment commitment made in October 2025. In that earlier deal, ICE said it would invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, marking one of the largest institutional moves into the prediction market sector. The latest transaction advances that arrangement, though terms for the new investment, including valuation, were not disclosed. Read more

Polymarket receives a $600 million investment from the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

Why Argentina is blocking Polymarket despite global growth, focusing on gambling laws, user protection concerns and regulatory pressure on prediction markets. Argentina’s nationwide ban on Polymarket shows that rapid global growth does not shield platforms from local regulation, especially when their core activity resembles unlicensed gambling. Authorities applied an “economic reality” approach, focusing on user behavior rather than the technology, and concluded that staking money on uncertain outcomes aligns with traditional definitions of gambling. Weak identity and age verification measures were a major concern, with regulators highlighting the risks of underage participation and inadequate user safeguards as justification for enforcement. Read more

Leading prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are taking new steps to try and counter insider trading.

The prediction bourse rolls out stricter trading safeguards and market limits across its platforms as it seeks regulatory alignment and addresses concerns over fairness. Prediction platform Polymarket has updated its market integrity rules to align more closely with regulatory standards and expand its presence as a regulated trading platform amid growing scrutiny of manipulation and insider trading risks. In a Monday announcement, the company outlined updated rules governing both its global decentralized finance platform and its US exchange, which operates under compliance oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The changes come amid growing scrutiny from regulators and politicians over risks tied to insider trading, market manipulation, and the proliferation of controversial event-based contracts. Read more

The memorandum of understanding with CFTC Chair Michael Selig comes as many US state authorities are cracking down on sports event contracts on prediction markets. Major League Baseball (MLB) announced that it had signed an “integrity protection” agreement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as it separately inked a deal with prediction markets platform Polymarket.  In a Thursday announcement, MLB said that its commissioner, Robert Manfred, signed a memorandum of understanding with CFTC Chair Michael Selig following the league’s request for “strong integrity protections in the rapidly evolving prediction market space.” In a separate deal, the league said it had reached an agreement for predictions market platform Polymarket to be its Official Prediction Market Exchange. “The new agreements that we formed with Polymarket and the CFTC are imperative steps in proactively managing the new and rapidly growing prediction market space,” said Manfred. Read more

A Buenos Aires court instructed Argentina's telecom agency ENACOM to block Polymarket nationwide, citing unauthorized gambling concerns. A court in Argentina has ordered a nationwide block of the major crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket over unauthorized gambling. Argentina’s national communications and media regulator, Ente Nacional de Comunicaciones (ENACOM), received a court order to block access to the Polymarket website and its variants across the country, according to a ruling dated March 11. The order was issued by the Buenos Aires Court of First Instance in Criminal, Contravention and Minor Offenses No. 31, which is investigating Polymarket under Argentina’s Criminal Code for allegedly offering gambling services without authorization. Read more