Polymarket | Crypto

The two separate rulings add new regulatory pressure as prediction markets also face scrutiny over information advantages and suspected insider activity tied to event-driven contracts. Two US federal court rulings have increased the risk that Nevada regulators may seek to halt prediction-market trading in the state after a judge sent a dispute involving Polymarket’s parent company Blockratize and Kalshi back to state court in two separate rulings. A federal judge rejected arguments that US regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fully preempts state gaming laws for prediction markets, according to a Monday order. The judge found that the CEA’s savings clause does not completely displace state authority and that the companies had not shown a basis to block Nevada’s action at this stage. Read more

A federal judge has sent Nevada’s cases against Kalshi and Polymarket back to state court, allowing regulators to seek temporary injunctions.

The newly created Polymarket wallets placed bets on the timing of a US strike against Iran, buying shares hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran. Six Polymarket traders earned roughly $1 million after accurately betting that the United States would strike Iran before the end of February, triggering insider trading suspicions. The six wallets were all created in February and placed nearly all of their activity on contracts predicting the timing of a potential US attack, Bloomberg reported, citing data shared by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report. Read more

As US policymakers scrutinize prediction markets platforms, many Polymarket users won bets over speculation as to which insider trading an online sleuth had exposed. Update (Feb. 26 at 7:33 pm UTC): This article has been updated to include a statement from Meteora. Polymarket users betting on an employee at trading platform Axiom as the target of an insider trading investigation by ZachXBT were rewarded after the crypto sleuth announced the results on social media to his 977,500 followers. In a Thursday X post, ZachXBT said Axiom employee Broox Bauer and others allegedly were responsible for insider trading activity at the company “since early 2025.” According to the pseudonymous onchain investigator, Bauer allegedly used internal tools “to lookup sensitive user details to insider trade by tracking private wallet activity.” Read more

Users placed more than $7 million betting on the outcome of the crypto sleuth's investigation, expected to be announced on Thursday. Users of prediction markets platform Polymarket are making bets on which crypto platform will be the next target on online sleuth ZachXBT, known for investigations into scams and hacks. As of Tuesday, Polymarket showed a 29% chance that ZachXBT would name decentralized liquidity platform Meteora on Thursday as part of what was described as a “major investigation” into “one of crypto’s most profitable businesses.” The crypto sleuth said in a Monday X post that the investigation was related to allegations of insider trading. According to ZachXBT, the investigation would reveal that multiple employees of the yet-unnamed exchange “abused internal data to insider trade over a prolonged period of time.” Polymarket users had the chance to bet on Meteora, MEXC, Axiom, Wintermute, and others ahead of the announcement. Read more

The prediction market's Dutch arm, Adventure One, allegedly offered illegal bets, including on elections in the Netherlands. The Netherlands Gambling Authority said it imposed a penalty on prediction markets platform Polymarket's Dutch arm, Adventure One, for offering gambling to residents without a license. In a Tuesday notice, Dutch authorities ordered the Polymarket company to “cease its activities immediately,” or face up to $990,000 in fines. According to authorities, Adventure One was in violation of Dutch law for offering illegal bets, including those on local elections, and the company had not responded to requests to address these activities. ”Prediction markets are on the rise, including in the Netherlands,” said the Netherlands Gambling Authority’s director of licensing and supervision, Ella Seijsener. “These types of companies offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by license holders.” Read more

Polymarket’s lawsuit challenges state authority and could redefine whether the CFTC controls US prediction markets or whether states set their own rules. Polymarket’s federal lawsuit against Massachusetts could determine whether prediction markets are regulated solely by the CFTC or also by states. The dispute centers on whether event contracts qualify as financial derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act or as gambling under state laws. The lawsuit followed state-level actions against platforms like Kalshi, with Massachusetts and Nevada moving to restrict sports-related prediction contracts. Read more

Peter Brandt isn’t convinced Bitcoin has bottomed yet, but a significant minority of Polymarket bets suggest there’s some hope: Trade Secrets

Peter Brandt isn’t convinced Bitcoin has bottomed yet, but a significant minority of Polymarket bets suggest there’s some hope: Trade Secrets

Peter Brandt isn’t convinced Bitcoin has bottomed yet, but a significant minority of Polymarket bets suggest there’s some hope: Trade Secrets

Israeli authorities said a military reservist and a civilian were arrested after allegedly using classified information to place bets related to military strikes on Iran. Israeli authorities have arrested and indicted two people for allegedly using secret information to place bets on the predictions market Polymarket related to Israel striking Iran. In a joint statement on Thursday, Israel’s Defense Ministry, its internal security service Shin Bet, and police said a military reservist and a civilian were arrested after an investigation found that the reservist obtained classified information to place the bets. The prosecutor’s office will pursue criminal charges for security-related offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice. Authorities said the reservist was working for Shin Bet. Read more

Near.AI introduces a secure, private, Rust-based version of OpenClaw called IronClaw, Olas prediction agents unleashed Polymarket. AI Eye.

Near.AI introduces a secure, private, Rust-based version of OpenClaw called IronClaw, Olas prediction agents unleashed Polymarket. AI Eye.

Near.AI introduces a secure, private, Rust-based version of OpenClaw called IronClaw, Olas prediction agents unleashed Polymarket. AI Eye.

Jump is set to take a fixed amount of equity in prediction market Kalshi, while its stake in Polymarket will grow over time depending on the trading capacity that the firm provides.

Global trading firm Jump will score stakes in prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket for its market-making services, per a report.

Polymarket is challenging Massachusetts in federal court, arguing that states lack the authority to regulate CFTC-approved prediction markets. Polymarket has filed a federal lawsuit against the state of Massachusetts, arguing that Congress granted the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive authority over event contracts, preventing states from independently shutting down federally regulated prediction markets. Neal Kumar, Polymarket’s chief legal officer, confirmed the lawsuit on Monday, saying the dispute involves national markets and unresolved legal questions that must be addressed at the federal, not state, level. “Racing to state court to try to shut down Polymarket US and other prediction markets doesn’t change federal law — and states like MA and NV that have done so will miss an amazing opportunity to help build markets for tomorrow,” Kumar said, referring to Massachusetts and Nevada.  Read more

Wall Street–style liquidity is reportedly moving into prediction markets, signaling a shift toward deeper markets, higher volumes and greater institutional participation. Jump Trading, a Chicago-based quantitative trading company, is reportedly set to acquire minority stakes in prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, underscoring growing institutional interest in the rapidly expanding sector. The equity stakes would be obtained in exchange for providing trading liquidity on both platforms, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing people familiar with the discussions. While the report did not disclose specific ownership percentages, Bloomberg said Jump’s stake in Polymarket would scale based on the liquidity the company ultimately provides. Read more

Polymarket will migrate from bridged USDC on Polygon to Circle-issued native USDC, reducing reliance on cross-chain bridges as prediction markets expand. Circle Internet Group has partnered with Polymarket to transition the prediction market’s settlement infrastructure to native USDC, replacing bridged stablecoin collateral used for trading on its platform. According to Thursday’s announcement, Polymarket currently uses bridged USDC (USDC.e) on Polygon as trading collateral and plans to migrate to Circle-issued native USDC (USDC) over the next few months. Native USDC is issued by Circle’s regulated entities and can be redeemed one-for-one for US dollars, offering a “capital-efficient” and scalable alternative without relying on cross-chain bridges. Cross-chain bridges are protocols that transfer tokens between blockchains by locking assets on one network and issuing corresponding representations on another. However, secure cross-chain communication introduces trade-offs in security, trust or flexibility that ...

A Nevada judge has temporarily barred prediction market Polymarket from offering event contracts in the state, pushing back against claims that only the CFTC can police those markets. A Nevada state judge has temporarily forced onchain prediction market Polymarket to halt business in the state, with a ruling that challenges the industry’s argument that federal commodities law preempts state gambling rules.  In a Thursday order seen by Cointelegraph, the court granted the Nevada Gaming Control Board a 14‑day temporary restraining order (TRO) against Polymarket operator Blockratize. The order bans Polymarket from offering event‑based contracts to Nevada residents while the case develops. A preliminary injunction hearing is scheduled for Feb. 11. The order leans on Nevada gambling statutes, finding at this early stage that Polymarket’s sports and other event markets constitute unlicensed wagering rather than regulated financial products.  Read more