Polymarket | Crypto

Polymarket will work with Palantir on developing systems for rooting out insider trading and manipulation in sports prediction markets.

"Sinners" star Jordan's odds of winning the Best Actor honors at next week's Academy Awards were only 10% on March 1, hours before he won SAG's top male actor award. Actor Michael B. Jordan overtook Timothée Chalamet on prediction market platform Polymarket as most likely to win “Best Actor” at the 2026 Oscars awards show, with his odds rising by over 4x since March 1. Last week, the “Sinners” star won the best actor award at the Actor Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards, or SAG. A week out from the Academy Awards, Polymarket traders place Jordan’s odds of winning the award at about 47%, while Chalamet is a close second at 45%, Leonardo DiCaprio is at 5%, Wagner Moura has 4% odds and Ethan Hawke has only 1% odds. Chalamet was in the lead until Saturday. Jordan was nominated for an Oscar for his role as twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore in the 2025 vampire horror film “Sinners.” Chalamet was nominated for his role in “Marty Supreme,” a fictional drama film about a table tennis player. Re...

Kalshi, approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was last valued at $11 billion, while Polymarket was valued at $9 billion.

Lawmakers are pushing new regulation for prediction markets after suspiciously timed Polymarket bets on US and Israeli strikes on Iran raised insider-trading concerns. Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that could value the companies at around $20 billion each, roughly double their most recent valuations. Both platforms have held preliminary discussions with potential investors about raising fresh capital at the elevated valuation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report noted that the negotiations remain at an early stage and may not result in deals or secure the targeted valuation. Kalshi currently operates in the United States and offers markets allowing users to wager on outcomes tied to sports, politics, the economy and cultural events. The company was last valued at about $11 billion in December when it raised $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. Read more

The two separate rulings add new regulatory pressure as prediction markets also face scrutiny over information advantages and suspected insider activity tied to event-driven contracts. Two US federal court rulings have increased the risk that Nevada regulators may seek to halt prediction-market trading in the state after a judge sent a dispute involving Polymarket’s parent company Blockratize and Kalshi back to state court in two separate rulings. A federal judge rejected arguments that US regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fully preempts state gaming laws for prediction markets, according to a Monday order. The judge found that the CEA’s savings clause does not completely displace state authority and that the companies had not shown a basis to block Nevada’s action at this stage. Read more

A federal judge has sent Nevada’s cases against Kalshi and Polymarket back to state court, allowing regulators to seek temporary injunctions.

The newly created Polymarket wallets placed bets on the timing of a US strike against Iran, buying shares hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran. Six Polymarket traders earned roughly $1 million after accurately betting that the United States would strike Iran before the end of February, triggering insider trading suspicions. The six wallets were all created in February and placed nearly all of their activity on contracts predicting the timing of a potential US attack, Bloomberg reported, citing data shared by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report. Read more

As US policymakers scrutinize prediction markets platforms, many Polymarket users won bets over speculation as to which insider trading an online sleuth had exposed. Update (Feb. 26 at 7:33 pm UTC): This article has been updated to include a statement from Meteora. Polymarket users betting on an employee at trading platform Axiom as the target of an insider trading investigation by ZachXBT were rewarded after the crypto sleuth announced the results on social media to his 977,500 followers. In a Thursday X post, ZachXBT said Axiom employee Broox Bauer and others allegedly were responsible for insider trading activity at the company “since early 2025.” According to the pseudonymous onchain investigator, Bauer allegedly used internal tools “to lookup sensitive user details to insider trade by tracking private wallet activity.” Read more

Users placed more than $7 million betting on the outcome of the crypto sleuth's investigation, expected to be announced on Thursday. Users of prediction markets platform Polymarket are making bets on which crypto platform will be the next target on online sleuth ZachXBT, known for investigations into scams and hacks. As of Tuesday, Polymarket showed a 29% chance that ZachXBT would name decentralized liquidity platform Meteora on Thursday as part of what was described as a “major investigation” into “one of crypto’s most profitable businesses.” The crypto sleuth said in a Monday X post that the investigation was related to allegations of insider trading. According to ZachXBT, the investigation would reveal that multiple employees of the yet-unnamed exchange “abused internal data to insider trade over a prolonged period of time.” Polymarket users had the chance to bet on Meteora, MEXC, Axiom, Wintermute, and others ahead of the announcement. Read more

The prediction market's Dutch arm, Adventure One, allegedly offered illegal bets, including on elections in the Netherlands. The Netherlands Gambling Authority said it imposed a penalty on prediction markets platform Polymarket's Dutch arm, Adventure One, for offering gambling to residents without a license. In a Tuesday notice, Dutch authorities ordered the Polymarket company to “cease its activities immediately,” or face up to $990,000 in fines. According to authorities, Adventure One was in violation of Dutch law for offering illegal bets, including those on local elections, and the company had not responded to requests to address these activities. ”Prediction markets are on the rise, including in the Netherlands,” said the Netherlands Gambling Authority’s director of licensing and supervision, Ella Seijsener. “These types of companies offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by license holders.” Read more

Polymarket’s lawsuit challenges state authority and could redefine whether the CFTC controls US prediction markets or whether states set their own rules. Polymarket’s federal lawsuit against Massachusetts could determine whether prediction markets are regulated solely by the CFTC or also by states. The dispute centers on whether event contracts qualify as financial derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act or as gambling under state laws. The lawsuit followed state-level actions against platforms like Kalshi, with Massachusetts and Nevada moving to restrict sports-related prediction contracts. Read more

Peter Brandt isn’t convinced Bitcoin has bottomed yet, but a significant minority of Polymarket bets suggest there’s some hope: Trade Secrets

Peter Brandt isn’t convinced Bitcoin has bottomed yet, but a significant minority of Polymarket bets suggest there’s some hope: Trade Secrets

Peter Brandt isn’t convinced Bitcoin has bottomed yet, but a significant minority of Polymarket bets suggest there’s some hope: Trade Secrets

Israeli authorities said a military reservist and a civilian were arrested after allegedly using classified information to place bets related to military strikes on Iran. Israeli authorities have arrested and indicted two people for allegedly using secret information to place bets on the predictions market Polymarket related to Israel striking Iran. In a joint statement on Thursday, Israel’s Defense Ministry, its internal security service Shin Bet, and police said a military reservist and a civilian were arrested after an investigation found that the reservist obtained classified information to place the bets. The prosecutor’s office will pursue criminal charges for security-related offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice. Authorities said the reservist was working for Shin Bet. Read more

Near.AI introduces a secure, private, Rust-based version of OpenClaw called IronClaw, Olas prediction agents unleashed Polymarket. AI Eye.

Near.AI introduces a secure, private, Rust-based version of OpenClaw called IronClaw, Olas prediction agents unleashed Polymarket. AI Eye.

Near.AI introduces a secure, private, Rust-based version of OpenClaw called IronClaw, Olas prediction agents unleashed Polymarket. AI Eye.

Jump is set to take a fixed amount of equity in prediction market Kalshi, while its stake in Polymarket will grow over time depending on the trading capacity that the firm provides.

Global trading firm Jump will score stakes in prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket for its market-making services, per a report.