Polymarket | Crypto

Bitcoin bets on Polymarket show elevated downside risk in 2026 as analysts point to bearish trends and tight US liquidity conditions. Prediction markets have turned more bearish on Bitcoin after a weekend sell-off briefly pushed prices below $75,000 on Monday. On Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $65,000 in 2026 climbed to 72% on Monday, with almost $1 million in volume. Other large wagers included bets on BTC dropping below $55,000 and reclaiming $100,000 by year-end, with implied probabilities of 61% and 54%, respectively. Read more

The Ethereum founder claims his strategy of betting against extreme market sentiment "usually makes money" on Polymarket.

Polymarket has re-entered the U.S. market following regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a move that could position prediction markets as a new engagement tool for major crypto platforms such as Coinbase, according to a report by Clear Street analyst Owen Lau. The post Polymarket’s U.S. Comeback Positions Prediction Markets as a Coinbase Retention Play: Analyst appeared first on Cryptonews.

The spike in Polymarket odds comes just days after United States President Donald Trump said “we’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.” Polymarket betters are pricing in a 77% chance that the US government will shut down again before the end of January, marking a 67% increase over the past 24 hours. It comes as the CLARITY Act, a significant crypto bill aimed at providing more clarity around regulations, is still making its way through Congress, with previous delays largely blamed on the record 43-day US government shutdown in October and November. Political commentator Collin Rugg highlighted the surging Polymarket odds in an X post on Saturday, noting that it came shortly after US Senator Chuck Schumer announced that Senate Democrats would not “provide the votes to proceed” to the appropriations bill if funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is included. Read more

Polymarket and similar platforms are considered unlicensed gambling operators, leading to blocked access.

The moves highlight growing uncertainty over whether crypto prediction markets are to be treated as finance or gambling. Update Jan. 20, 12:29 p.m. UTC: This article has been updated to include a paragraph on the details surrounding Portugal’s ban on Polymarket. Hungary and Portugal have taken steps to restrict access to the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, adding to mounting regulatory pressure on the platform across Europe. Hungary’s regulatory authority, Szabályozott Tevékenységek Felügyeleti Hatósága, has temporarily blocked access to Polymarket’s domain and subdomains, citing the “forbidden organization of gambling activities.” According to an official notice released Friday, the restriction will remain in place until the authority completes its review. Read more

Betting on political events is illegal in Portugal, and the regulator gave Polymarket 48 hours to cease operations in the country.

A trader exploited thin weekend liquidity and automated market-making bots on Polymarket to lock in a $233,000 profit, sparking debate over whether the strategy crossed the line into market manipulation.

On Jan. 9, Tennessee’s sports betting regulator sent a set of letters that, at first glance, looked like the kind of paperwork most crypto natives scroll past. The message was blunt: stop offering sports-related event contracts to Tennessee residents, void unsettled positions, and refund customers by Jan. 31. The recipients, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, sit […] The post Kalshi and Polymarket face a “sports gambling” probe that could void your trades and shut down the market appeared first on CryptoSlate.

US President Donald Trump said the “leaker on Venezuela has been found and is in jail” as some Polymarket accounts tied to early bets on Maduro’s ouster go silent. US President Donald Trump said the “leaker on Venezuela” has been jailed, a remark that has renewed scrutiny of prediction markets following a series of well-timed bets earlier this month. “The leaker on Venezuela has been found and is in jail right now,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Wednesday, according to a video posted by The Wall Street Journal. Although Trump did not mention prediction markets, blockchain analysts such as Lookonchain have speculated that the leaker may be linked to a cluster of Polymarket accounts that placed concentrated bets on Venezuela outcomes just hours before the news became public. Read more

The move adds Ukraine to a growing list of countries, including France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Poland, Thailand and Australia, where Polymarket is already restricted. Ukraine has blocked access to the prediction market platform Polymarket, classifying its activities as unlicensed gambling under national law. The decision was issued by the National Commission for the Regulation of Electronic Communications (NCEC) on Dec. 10, 2025, under Resolution No. 695. The ruling requires internet service providers to restrict access to online resources that organize, conduct or facilitate gambling without a valid license. As part of the enforcement, the domain polymarket.com has been added to Ukraine’s public register of blocked websites, effectively cutting off local access to the platform, local news outlets reported on Monday. Read more

Polymarket is already restricted in 33 countries.

Tennessee ordered Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com to halt sports-related contracts and issue refunds by Jan. 31, 2026. The post Tennessee Orders Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to Halt Sports Betting Contracts appeared first on Cryptonews.

Tennessee regulator warned that failure to comply could trigger steep fines, court injunctions and potential law enforcement referrals for for further investigation. Tennessee’s sports betting regulator has ordered prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com to halt the offering of sports event contracts to residents of the state. In cease-and-desist letters dated Friday, the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) accused all three platforms of illegally offering sports wagering products without holding a license issued under the Tennessee Sports Gaming Act, according to copies of the letters published on X by sports betting attorney Daniel Wallach. The SWC said the sports event contracts listed on Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com’s North American Derivatives Exchange allow users to wager money on the outcome of sporting events, a practice Tennessee law reserves exclusively for licensed sportsbooks. The regulator argued that packaging the products as “event contracts” does not exempt them ...

The Polymarket account that profited on Nicholas Maduro's capture and ouster as president is inaccessible, adding to concerns over insider trading allegations on prediction markets. A Polymarket account that earned about $400,000 from a controversial and well-timed bet on the capture of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is no longer accessible on the platform. The Polymarket page for account “0x31a56e,” which placed about $32,000 on Maduro’s removal as president just before news emerged of his capture by US military and law enforcement, now returns a dead link, Cointelegraph has confirmed. As of Thursday about 1:00 p.m. UTC, the page showed an error saying “Oops… we didn’t forecast this,” while other users’ pages remain accessible. Read more

The companies are partnering to make prediction markets available with “dedicated data modules” on Dow Jones-owned websites and some of its print media. Polymarket has partnered with Dow Jones to make its predictions market data available to users on multiple platforms. In a Wednesday notice, Polymarket and Dow Jones said the predictions market data would be available on The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, MarketWatch and Investor’s Business Daily, among others. According to the companies, Polymarket will be featured in “dedicated data modules” on websites and select print placements. Dow Jones CEO Almar Latour said the decision was based on helping clients “better interpret market sentiment and assess risk.” Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan said the partnership would combine “journalistic insight with real-time market probabilities.” Read more

Polymarket updated its documentation to show taker-only fees on short-term crypto markets, with proceeds redistributed to market makers as liquidity rebates. Prediction market platform Polymarket updated its documentation to show that 15-minute crypto up/down markets now carry taker fees, marking a departure from its long-standing zero-fee trading model. According to the newly updated “Trading Fees” and “Maker Rebates Program” sections of the site’s documentation, the prediction markets platform has enabled taker-only fees on 15-minute crypto markets to fund liquidity incentives for market makers. Fees collected from takers are redistributed daily in USDC (USDC) stablecoin to liquidity providers, rather than retained by the protocol. The change applies only to these short-duration crypto markets, while the vast majority of Polymarket’s markets remain without fees. Read more

Parcl’s native PRCL token surged over 100% following news of the partnership, which brings housing price indexes into prediction markets. Parcl and Polymarket have partnered to launch real estate prediction markets that will settle against Parcl’s daily housing price indexes, bringing housing price data into prediction markets for the first time. Under the partnership announced Monday, Polymarket will list and operate markets tied to movements in housing price indices, while Parcl will supply the index data used to determine market outcomes and settlement values. Each market will link to a Parcl resolution page showing the final settlement value, historical index data and the methodology used to calculate the index, providing a standardized reference for verifying outcomes once markets close. Read more

It started, like these Polymarket “insider trading” stories usually do, with a screenshot and a smell test. A brand-new Polymarket account rolled in, threw roughly $30,000 at a long-shot outcome tied to Venezuela’s leadership, and walked away with about $400,000 in profit. U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro and moved him into U.S. custody ahead of […] The post Another shady Polymarket account turned $30k into $400k moments before the US captured Maduro appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Polymarket traders are holding back their optimism back for Bitcoin this year, despite many analysts tipping the price to hit $150,000 and above. Prediction market traders on Polymarket are tipping 21% odds of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year, despite many analysts seeing 2026 as a belated bull year for Bitcoin.  According to the current market, “What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?” Polymarket shows 45% odds of Bitcoin reaching $120,000, a price point below its all-time high. The odds fall further at $130,000, with just a 35% probability, while $140,000 has a 28% chance and $150,000 has a 21% chance.  Read more