Using Monte Carlo simulations and the 200-week moving average, Diaman Partners estimates Bitcoin's next cycle bottom could range from $60,000 to $80,000 by 2026. It is now clear to most investors, especially those who have survived one or more crypto winters, that Bitcoin moves in cycles of about four years. Many argued until 2022 that Bitcoin would always remain above its previous highs. This happened in 2011, in 2014 and in 2018. In 2022, however, the price of Bitcoin fell, due to the collapse of FTX, to $15,000, below the fateful threshold of $20,000, which was briefly reached, albeit for a few days in December 2017. While everyone is trying to predict what the maximum value of Bitcoin will be in this cycle, which is likely to end in late October 2025, the research department at Diaman Partners has attempted to understand how to estimate what the minimum value of Bitcoin will be in 2026, should the crypto winter materialize in the coming months. Many experts speculate that Bitcoin's cyclical phase is over ...
Numerai, the Paul Tudor Jones–backed hedge fund powered by crowdsourced AI models, has secured a $500 million commitment from JPMorgan. Numerai, an AI-driven hedge fund backed by Paul Tudor Jones, has secured a commitment of up to $500 million from JPMorgan Asset Management — a vast sum that could more than double its assets under management and highlight a growing institutional interest in crypto-friendly money managers. Numerai confirmed Tuesday that the allocation will be deployed over the next year, with returns tied to its crowdsourced trading models built by thousands of data scientists worldwide. Since its inception in 2015, Numerai has expanded its assets under management to roughly $450 million, with most of that growth occurring over the past three years. Read more
Donald Trump Jr. has joined Polymarket’s advisory board as 1789 Capital invests in the platform, tying the prediction market more closely to US politics. Prediction market Polymarket has added Donald Trump Jr. to its advisory board after receiving a strategic investment from 1789 Capital, which describes itself as a politically aligned vehicle backing companies it sees advancing “American exceptionalism.” The companies did not reveal financial terms, but Axios estimated the investment at “double-digit millions of dollars." Trump Jr. became a partner in the fund in 2024. In a Tuesday statement, he said that "Polymarket cuts through media spin and so-called 'expert' opinion by letting people bet on what they actually believe will happen in the world." Read more
$33 trillion in debt matures in 2026. How will Bitcoin respond to macro forces and credit markets that may impact its future as much as halvings once did? Key takeaways: $33 trillion in debt will mature across advanced economies in 2026, forming a refinancing wall that could drain liquidity and weigh on risk-on assets as borrowing costs remain high. Global liquidity is projected to peak in late 2025, historically a precursor to tighter markets. Read more
XRP price contends with short-term sell pressure, but a double-digit drop in its open interest could open the door to a new accumulation opportunity. Key takeaways: XRP open interest has dropped 30%, signaling cooling futures activity. A fair value gap at $2.33–$2.65 is a key demand zone if selling pressure persists. Read more
“Japan prizes systemic stability above innovation speed, while the US is signaling a bigger market-opening play,” said Startale Group’s Takashi Tezuka. While the US GENIUS Act is being celebrated as a market catalyst for stablecoin adoption, Japan’s earlier reforms show the flip side: Clarity doesn’t automatically translate into immediate real-world utility. Japan had the world’s first comprehensive stablecoin regime in 2023, but adoption has been muted. Licensed issuers exist on paper, yet there’s no thriving yen-stablecoin economy. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Takashi Tezuka, country manager at Web3 infrastructure developer Startale Group, said the adoption gap between the US and Japan reflects a philosophical difference in regulatory design. Read more